World Market Trends

Long-term world market trends and global repercussions of an African biomass expansion

Problem statement: The long-term impact analysis of increased and more efficient food and non-food biomass production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will be dependent on the global trends in biomass demand. Demand from emerging economies, increasing global scarcity in suitable cropland, and rising energy prices all suggest that global biomass demand will continue to increase in the coming decades, providing new and lasting price incentives to African producers.

Objective: An assessment of the international environment within which biomass production in Africa will be carried out in the next two decades up to 2030.

Research questions:

  1. What are possible scenarios of global demand for food and non-food biomass?
  2. How will world price levels for biomass respond to these demand and supply trends?
  3. How will international price trends be transmitted to national markets in Africa, especially the case study regions?
  4. Which global commodity market repercussions (regional supply and world market prices) can be expected from different scenarios of biomass expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa?

Methodology:

Simulations using the global agricultural market simulation model CAPRI (www.capri-model.org)

Involved partners:

  • ILR, University of Bonn, Germany
  • ISSER, Accra, Ghana
  • IFPRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Investigators:

  • Dr. Arnim Kuhn
    Senior Researcher
    University of Bonn
    Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR)
    Email: arnim.kuhn@ilr.uni-bonn.de
  • Dr. Felix Asante
    Senior Researcher
    Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER)
  • Prof. Dr. Thomas Heckelei
    Team Leader
    Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR)