Analysis of Supply

Analysis of the supply side

This cluster comprises (a) an analysis of current and potential future supply of biomass in

Sub-Saharan Africa; (b) an assessment of the role of different suppliers (small farms, largescale farms, role of processors); (c) modeling of crop productivity and resource use and (d) a GIS-based analysis of land use scenarios and allocations for present and possible future conditions. It asks: Which kind of biomass is being or can be produced in Africa and for which purpose; who is producing it, how is it produced, and where? How may the food and non-food biomass demand be satisfied in 2030?

WP 2.1 “Production systems modeling” addresses crop productivity and resource use efficiency in biomass webs through a model-based analysis of current and potential productivity of biomass webs (using the SIMPLACE model). Productivity, resource use and productivity gap factors will be identified. Spatially explicit scenarios of potential changes in crop and soil management will be developed to address the current low per-capita production of agricultural commodities in SSA and to identify opportunities for diversification and intensification of production.

WP 2.2 “Family farms” analyses how biomass-based value webs can contribute to the reduction of food insecurity among family farm households under changing socio-economic and institutional conditions. Empirical local field research will be conducted in two case studies in Ethiopia and Ghana or Nigeria. Family farming households represent the largest number of food insecure people in SAA and produce the bulk of agricultural goods on the continent. The role of women will be explicitly considered. State and non-state institutions as well as other local actors (processors, traders, commercial farms) with direct impact on family farmers’ decisions to produce food or non-food products will also be studied.